By Biswas Baral. From kantipur

By Biswas Baral
The future course of Nepali politics could not be more obscure. The largest party in the Constituent Assembly has been left out of the new coalition government. The 22 parties that are in the coalition have more differences than they have let on during the government formation process. As the dust settles, these schisms are bound to come to the fore erecting many now unseen hurdles; running the government with the UCPN (Maoist) ramping up its protests both inside and outside the legislature-parliament will be tougher still.

As of this writing, the jockeying for ministerial berths continues. Girija Prasad Koirala has recommended his daughter Sujata for the post of foreign minister to the chagrin of virtually all of the Nepali Congress top-brass. The Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) — or the Bijay Kumar Gacchadar faction, at least — for its part, has also upped the ante by demanding nine ministerial berths while CPN-UML is still keen on keeping key portfolios like Home and Finance.

It is hard to see how such a fractious coalition will hold together for any length of time while the Maoists bay for blood from the opposition bench. But political uncertainty is hardly a new phenomenon in a country where not a single government, not even the majority NC government post 1990 revolution, has been able to complete its full term. If there is a silver-lining to this dubious national record, it's that the bigger problems in Nepali politics seem to stem not from diverse demands of ethnic and linguistic communities — though they certainly have been instrumental in complicating national politics — but from the utter incompetence of our political leaders.Many suppressed voices began to make themselves heard after the reinstitution of democracy in 1990. Yet, the monolithic culture imposed from above as well as the lack of political awareness meant that voices of dissent were few and far between. Instead, what people asked for was that their basic needs be taken care of: that they have enough to eat, easy road access to trade their wares and electricity to go about their daily business unhindered. Demands for ethnic and linguistic rights were raised here and there but without the political knowledge imparted by the Maoist rebellion, most of the rural people were even unaware of their socio-cultural rights. This suggests that even now the bigger problem in Nepali politics is not harmonising the diverse demands of its countless ethnic and linguistic communities — which didn't surface before the 2006 April Revolution — but perennial clutches that bedevil Nepali politics: misgovernance, corruption, indifference to people's needs, centralisation of important resources.Thus the ethnic and regional issues might not be as hard to untangle as they seem at the outset. First and the foremost, people want a semblance of peace and political stability so that they can go about their daily lives without any kind of fear and intimidation. Then they want easy availability of drinking water and electricity, schooling for their kids and to be able to live happy and healthy lives. Thus, for the new federal Nepal it is vital to put people first while designing any development programme. For far too long, a section of the population, centered in and around the capital, has enjoyed all the privileges at the cost of the majority living in rural Nepal. For all these reasons (and some more), so much rides on the new constitution and a rigorous adherence to its provisions. Nonetheless, one thing's for sure: It won't be to the satisfaction of everyone.

At this point of time, what make Nepalis pessimistic about their future are the uncertainties that lie ahead: Will the new statute address their needs? Will it invite a new cycle of violence?In such a climate, taking it a day at a time will be hard. As professor of psychology at Harvard, Daniel Gilbert, writes in The New York Times: "...people feel worse when something bad might occur than when something bad will occur... An uncertain future leaves us stranded in an unhappy present with nothing to do but wait."

Nepalis, who have known nothing but uncertainties are justifiably pessimistic about the country's future political course. Yes, amid uncertainties also lies hope. But hope will be hard to come by if the political parties cannot give a clear vision of new Nepal in the next couple of years, by which time, hopefully, we shall have a viable constitution.

The constitution will be important not because it will cure the country of all its ills — far from it. But even if it is able to chart the country's future with some certainty, Nepalis will be able to breathe a sigh of relief. Then, it will be over to the politicians. Let them understand that it's not pains of sticking to a difficult path that keeps Nepalis awake at night, but not knowing where they are headed at all.